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Of money and credit "roller coaster" appearance illustrates what

July monetary and credit data where there are many worthy of our careful consideration. For seasonal fluctuations, we certainly have to improve supervision, adjustment to avoid man-made; but if the data to drop entirely attributable to the seasonal fluctuations and base effects, but not the economic slowdown, will miss the timing of responses in a timely manner.

and June Burns so hot compared to the data of July called chill of money and credit. Or perhaps it was the community to worry Bank specifically published an official interpretation. According to my search, this seems to be the Central Bank a month for the first time in the history of data interpretation. However, the Central Bank's interpretation of its authority, also has its limitations, folk interpretation of critical as well.

monetary aggregate M2 at the end of July totaled 119.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.5%, 1.2% growth than late last month. Indeed, in July, M2 growth decline, stocks also fell in June, down 1.54 trillion, or 1.3% per cent, second-largest decline since monthly data began in 1996. This June, M2 May increase of 2.73 trillion yuan, in stark contrast to the rose 2.31%. Loans are doing relatively better. End of July 78.02 trillion yuan loans, rose 13.4%, 0.6% growth than late last month, equivalent to the M2 growth rate declined by half, and has continued to increase in the aggregate only and June compared to 1.08 trillion yuan in new loans, new loans in July significantly below market expectations. July Community financing only add 273.1 billion, less than the new loans, the lowest value since October 2008. In June this year, the figure reached 1.97 trillion. One of the new loan is part of the total amount of Community financing July new loans in the total amount of Community financing is less than is due to negative growth in other components, which are not discounted bank acceptance bills reduced 416 billion yuan, was the biggest drag.

interpretation of the Bank's explanation is that seasonal fluctuations, the base effect, June shot up more, regulators to strengthen supervision, financial institutions prudent investment, effective demand is limited, and so on. Are of a different nature and impact of these factors, you need to know which factors play a leading role in. According to the Central Bank's preliminary estimates, base on the M2 growth rate change is approximately 0.7%. Since July, M2 per cent growth decreased compared to June 1.2%, the above calculation base effect can explain the growth of more than 50%, is clearly the main reason.

base effects related to seasonal fluctuations. Around since 2002, and in April, July and October of each year (that is, the first month quarter) of the new M2 are significantly lower than in other months of the same year, in July to a seasonally fluctuating stability in April, and in October was strong in July. In fact, it is the result of loan policy limited to seasonal fluctuations, that is, in the end in order to meet regulatory requirements and surge deposits, and M2, and at the beginning of the next quarter funds to other uses. Last June, due to a money shortage, should trend higher deposits, and M2 does not Spike, occurred in July last year, should fall also did not appear. This base effect in July this year compared with growth.

July's M2 growth per cent observed over the past several years, July's new M2 while the past few years can be found on the low side, but still positive, and since 2011 the July M2 per cent negative growth. This may be because of that year financing products, such as channel size become large enough. Last July over the M2 June monthly growth rate assumption and historic averages, 0.83%, should be 14.2% in July, M2 per cent growth rate this year, higher than the actual value of 13.5% 0.7%.

but this can easily lead to a wrong perception is measured, that July's M2 growth rate is low, in fact, is because last June did not Spike, last July, no come down a lot, so after the two factors cancel each other out, last July's M2 is normal, in July this year M2 growth rate that is normal. Deviation from the normal, and in June of this year M2 growth rate. Last June, M2 spiked in June of this year's growth rate will be lower than the actual values.

seasonal fluctuations and the base effect, only July, an important reason for decline of money and credit, another reason is that economic growth has continued to slow down. On the relationship between economic and monetary, scholars often use the money to predict the future of the economy, in fact, when the economy also is expected to affect currencies. Central Bank said financial institutions wary of capital, limited and effective demand and other factors, embodiment of an economic slowdown.

seasonally adjusted data by observing sequential growth rates, you can avoid the effects of seasonal fluctuations and the base effect compared with growth. Due to the sequential growth rates fluctuating too much, better observation is per cent annualised growth in the last three months. July after seasonal adjustments in the past three months M2 annualised growth of 13.2% per cent, 6.7% lower than in June than in May fell by 0.4%. Obviously, after the removal of seasonal fluctuations and the base effect, a sharp fall in July monetary growth remained. Need to be aware of is that July per cent annualised growth in the last three months have included data for June, June's surge has been demonstrated, so we cannot attribute the fall in July to June spike. Is consistent with the above observation, June in M2 growth rate 2.31% per cent compared to previous years and is not the highest (less than June 2012 in 2.77%, slightly higher than the June 2011 in 2.28%), but the July M2 per cent growth rate was the lowest.


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